Congo’s plagues revisit

While it’s a beautiful clear Sunday in Lilongwe, things back in Congo aren’t quite as sunny. What was initially reported as an unidentified disease outbreak in my old home province of Kasai Occidental is now confirmed to be Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever. Friends in the province report 170 confirmed deaths and about twice as many infections. Realistically speaking from my former life in hemorrhagic fever health communications, Ebola is a self-limiting bug, striking in remote places and killing most of its victims before they have a chance to pass it on to too many others. That being said, it still leaves a morbid wake in its path.

On the political side, Fred reports that Laurent Nkunda in eastern Congo is still standing strong against integrating his private militia into the national army. The rebel leader’s latest move in the Kivus has been to destroy both the power supply and cell towers in the area, a new low even for Congolese trouble-makers. (Though their mobile service is probably still better than the mangy service Celtel provides around these parts).

In better news, UNICEF reports that child mortality in Malawi is on the decline; welcome news for a country that generally ranks somewhere near the bottom of the Human Development Index. The decline is attributed to a variety of child-targeted public health interventions including increased immunisation rates, better nutrition and clean water. It is the most basic changes that can have the most impact in this corner of the globe.

A judicial affair

While our old friend Jean Pierre Bemba has been braaing away his time at the South African Embassy here in Kinshasa, he still has not received permission from the Congolese government to travel to Portugal. It’s not clear who is responsible for granting the request, nor has a warrant been issued for his arrest to date.

An unnamed minister comments “Bemba is a judicial problem… This has nothing to do with us.” while the state prosecutor says that although Bemba is being investigated, “(t)his case doesn’t concern the judiciary. We have nothing to do with his departure.”

Apparently Bemba is not the only one looking for a new home: two swimmers competing in Melbourne on behalf of Congo have decided to make a break for a better life.

On the ground here in Kinshasa, the streets are quiet in the evenings as all UN personnel are still on an 8pm curfew. There’s still some question about what will happen from this point forward. With some of Bemba’s former soldiers now integrated into the national army with unknown loyalties and others still hiding in la cité, it’s difficult to say whether his forces are too fractured to continue to cause unrest or still pose significant threat. Maybe we need some technical support from Sahara Sarah who’s latest adventures in Burundi include a CD ROM on coping with insecurity.

Meanwhile word is that the government is running on a 10% budget deficit which certainly won’t help the dip the Congolese franc suffered as a result of last month’s fighting. That combined with complaints that Kabila’s government has been harassing different members of the opposition does not present a pretty picture for the path to democracy.

Fallout

While news agencies now reporting over 600 deaths during the recent violence, the EU and its member states’ leaders come out strongly against the attack on several embassies: Article 22 of the convention states that all diplomatic premises shall be inviolable, and that the state is under a special duty to take all appropriate steps to protect the premises of the mission against any intrusion or damage…

Meanwhile Bemba, still camped out in the South African Embassy (in Kinshasa, contrary to rumours!), is most likely headed to Portugal for medical treatment. Hopes are high that this will diffuse the political situation, although there has been much speculation over Bemba’s forces that supposedly escaped across the river to Brazzaville. With 200 of Bemba’s men in Equateur agreeing to integration into the national army, it’s difficult to say how many active troops he had prior to the fighting.

We’re all still trading war stories and trying to figure out which rumours are true. How exactly did Bemba’s brother get out of prison last Wednesday night after being picked up by the police for threatening the Prime Minister?

What passes for normal

I’m not sure what constitutes normal in this part of the world but it seems that most people around here are trying to get back to it.

Somewhere between 100 and 150 were killed during the clashes. The International Committee of the Red Cross has organized a relief mission which arrived on Saturday and has taken a major role in cleaning up the bodies and supplementing the medical supplies of the Hôpital General for treating the wounded.

While many of Bemba’s men are surrendering to MONUC, there’s some discussion as to whether they are turning in all of their arms. One of the major failings of the DDR programmes here (and I would guess in other places) is that large stocks of weapons are hidden when militia members turn themselves in, leaving open the opportunity to re-mobilise again fairly quickly. Others report seeing large caches of arms being brought into MONUC compounds – garbage cans filled to the hilt with AK-47s and RPGs. But no ammunition; which was apparently the limiting factor in Bemba’s forces efforts.

The have been rumours of Angolan troops in the country on and off for several months and there have now been definite sightings in Kinshasa. Apparently during the fighting the Angolan army was ready for deployed to Congo.

Bemba is still said to be at the South African embassy although there is no definitive news as to his future plans or pending asylum applications. He continues to insist that his life was treatened several times.

We’re back in the office today, as are most people. Back to the grind as everyone awaits the shaky next step in the supposedly enlightened path to democracy.

Rumblings of note

Things were starting to get back to what passes for normal around here. We hadn’t had to close the office for security reasons since November. But Bemba, the former rebel leader turned vice president, then turned away in the last election continues to keep a substantial armed force of a couple of thousands troops at Maluku (where they were ordered to retreat to last year) about 40 minutes outside of Kinshasa.

The government has issued an ultimatum that Bemba’s troops –who continue to be seen frequently around Kinshasa, particularly near Bemba’s house about a mile from mine- disarm by midnight tomorrow night. Ruberwa, another rebel leader turned VP and now back in his eastern home territory and unemployed, has also been ordered to disarm his personal security forces.

Of course I, for the life of me, cannot figure out why this didn’t all happen last week while I was on holiday in Europe and had the potential of being stuck somewhere other than my Kinshasa apartment if push does come to shove.

On the way back from the airport last night, as a friend and I were filled on the details above, a convey led by a police truck came roaring at us, going to wrong way down the ‘highway’ towards the airport. My friend’s face collapsed into an ironic smirk. I signed the forms for the Police to get driving school training.

So much for security reform.

Wanted: one traffic cop

When I returned from holidays this month, the newly sworn-in government was not the only change in Kinshasa. There was a new traffic police stand in the middle of the 5-way intersection I pass through on the way to work. It is not the intersection of major boulevards but it is an artery for mini-buses bringing Congolese into town from la cité. And it does have some nasty blind spots. So the idea of placing a traffic stand in the intersection seems like a good one.

However in the two weeks since I have been back, I have not once seen a traffic cop in the booth directing traffic. And because the intersection is not a major one, the stand itself occupies enough of the available space that all drivers are forced to careen around it, increasing the likelihood of their slamming into another vehicle (which let me tell you is not an uncommon occurrence in Kin).

At this point, it’s still difficult to tell whether the new government’s traffic stand is occupied or vacant. Antoine Gizenga, once Patrice Lumumba’s Deputy Prime Minister and now in his ‘80s, has been named President Kabila’s Prime Minister, taking over the post that many Congolese feel is rightfully his.

Meanwhile our old buddy Jean-Pierre Bemba was back in Kinshasa in time for Cardinal Etsou’s memorial service this past Monday. You may remember the controversial Cardinal’s outspoken opposition to the way the elections were run last year, criticizing the West’s involvement and encouraging Catholics to boycott results if they did not meet his personal standards. Bemba managed to create a scene at the Mass, when his late arrival barred him from entry.

Bemba’s role as opposition leader without a formal position is still amorphous. He has since returned to Equateur, his home province, to campaign for the senatorial elections which will be held tomorrow. I wonder what other resources he is mobilising as he sits in the middle of his own tropical fiefdom of old-growth timber forests.

Meanwhile as the senatorial elections approach and Kinshasa remains quiet, life in the East descends back into what it is known best for: its violence. Soldiers from the national army in Bunia went on a looting and raping spree when the new mechanism to ensure they got paid –namely not giving all their salary money to the generals to distribute trickle down style- failed.

It’s hard to imagine how the national disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme CONADER will be able to convince militias to demobilise when the national army is not getting paid. But then CONADER seems to have lost both its funding and its governmental mandate as of the end of 2006.

That being said, plans are being put into place to integrate the troops of Laurent Nkunda, the rebel leader who seized Bukavu in 2004 continues to stir up trouble in the Kivus, into the national army. Nkunda himself has agreed to go into exile in exchange for not being pursued for war crimes. While Nkunda is remaining in Congo for the moment to aid in the reintegration of his troops, no one has mentioned where the rebel leader plans to seek his exile or what nation will agree to take the man in. The esoteric battle between the search for justice and the reality of peace-building in a country such as this one does little in terms of reparations for those who have lived through it.

As we wait to see how the new government’s traffic stand will be filled, hopefully the players involved will recognise the novel structure now existing and adjust their actions accordingly to manoeuvre the situation without catastrophe.